In a new analysis published in E‑International Relations on February 7, Hamilton Lugar School faculty members Jamsheed K. Choksy and Carol E. B. Choksy argue that Iranian public attitudes toward foreign involvement in political change have rapidly undergone a significant shift amid escalating state violence. Drawing on firsthand communications, survey data, and reports from within Iran, the authors contend that the Islamic Republic’s response to protests beginning in late December 2025 has fundamentally altered the population’s long‑standing resistance to outside intervention.
A shift in public sentiment
According to the authors, the regime’s crackdown has reached a level that many Iranians now view as existential, eroding nationalist objections to foreign assistance that shaped earlier protest movements in 2009, 2019, 2022, and even when the recent protests began in December 2025. Choksy and Choksy point to several indicators of this shift:
- Unprecedented repression: Citing estimates attributed to Iran’s Ministry of Health, the authors report more than 30,000 deaths across approximately 4,000 locations nationwide, with security forces reinforced by foreign militias.
- Economic punishment: The government‑imposed digital blackout has crippled commerce at an estimated cost of $37 million per day, while routine financial transactions have been frozen and food supplies increasingly distributed as rewards for political loyalty.
- Emerging appeals for outside help: The authors describe growing calls from Iranians—communicated directly and through intermediaries—for external assistance, including requests for targeted military action against regime leadership and enforcement capabilities.
Taken together, the authors argue, these developments mark a departure from previous uprisings, when concerns about sovereignty and foreign interference constrained public openness to external support despite widespread domestic brutality.
Policy options examined in the analysis
Choksy and Choksy outline a range of actions they argue the United States could take to assist Iranians seeking to overthrow the current government without deploying ground forces. Their analysis emphasizes coordinated pressure designed to weaken the regime’s capacity for repression while enabling domestic resistance. Among the measures discussed are:
- Comprehensive economic sanctions and blockades to prevent resupply of regime forces
- Disruption of government financial systems and internal communications
- Aerial strikes targeting command‑and‑control infrastructure, military installations, and weapons facilities
- Expanded support for alternative communication systems, such as Starlink, to allow coordination among protesters
- Targeted action against regime leadership at multiple levels
The authors situate these proposals within the United Nations’ Responsibility to Protect (R2P) framework, arguing that the scale of repression in Iran could meet the threshold for international intervention in response to crimes against humanity.
Post‑regime transition
While advocating for robust external pressure, Choksy and Choksy emphasize that any successful political transformation must ultimately be led by Iranians themselves. They argue that Washington should refrain from selecting or imposing new leadership, instead allowing internal political processes to shape Iran’s future government. In their assessment, Iran’s existing civil service infrastructure and constitutional framework—minus its theocratic elements—could support a rapid transition toward more representative governance.
The authors conclude that current conditions present a “unique opportunity” for the United States to weaken what they describe as a major regional threat while enabling Iranians to determine their own political future.
The Hamilton Lugar connection
Jamsheed K. Choksy is a distinguished professor of Iranian and Central Eurasian Studies and director of the Inner Asian and Uralic National Resource Center in the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies. Carol E. B. Choksy is a senior lecturer of strategic intelligence in the Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering and a faculty affiliate of the Hamilton Lugar School’s Center for the Study of the Middle East.
Their analysis reflects the Hamilton Lugar School’s focus on bridging regional expertise with policy‑relevant scholarship addressing pressing global challenges.